N.A. Zharvin

Doctor of Philosophy, Candidate of Geographical Sciences,

Academician of the Academy of Defense and Law Enforcement Security

Who Will Destroy the �Unbreakable� NATO?

By the materials of the author�s monograph: �What is in store for the mankind cradleland?� and its subheading �Greenland-Iceland Geogenetic Complex�, Moscow , �Liberea-Biblioform� Publishers, 2006

            In the film of Sergey Eizenshtein �Ivan the Terrible� there is one scene that we consider the strongest by its effect in the world cinema: in the Cathedral of the Assumption in Kremlin during a church service the Patriarch Philipp (in ordinary life boyarin Fedor Kolychev) started an ardent dispute with the cruel tsar. �Abolish the oprichnina, Tsar, till the last time comes,� demanded Patriarch from Ivan the IVth. The Patriarch understood quite well that he risked his neck, but he went on to the end in his struggle with the disgraceful manifestation of despotism of Ivan the Terrible � bloody Bacchanalia of oprichnina. And the Tsar, contemptuously and angrily, replied to the Patriarch: �What are my tsar matters to you, serf?� Soon Philipp was disfrocked and put to death. But the words said by the Patriarch during his dispute with the Tsar came true. The Tsar survived the Patriarch not for long. Thus, the reigning of the ancient Ryurikovich clan on the Moscow throne stopped. The Godunov clan was swept by Lzhedmitry I who soon also died and the time of trouble came to Moscow Rus that nearly ended with the loss by the Russian people of their national independence and statehood. Returning to the dispute between the Patriarch and the Tsar in the Eizenshtein�s film let us pay attention to the fact that this episode is evolving against the background of a biblical plot in which cruel Tsar Novokhudonosor of the Chaldean Babilon ordered to throw three Jew youths into a hot furnace to roast. Boys playing the Biblical adolescents are singing increasing the dramatism of the moment: Why you, Chaldeans, glorify the blighter tsar, the tyrant tsar. And the Heavenly Tsar will come down and mock the carnal tsar�.

            Sometimes I heard inside me the words of church hymns sang by �Biblical adolescents� when I think about the destiny of the peoples and, first of all, the peoples living in countries bordering on the Northern Atlantics should the Global Environmental Disaster does occur after explosion of the Great Rift Volcano (see the article �King of Volcanoes� and the foregoing monograph of the author).

Here I would like to enlighten the readers about the disaster mentioned above. The second half of the XXth century and beginning of the XXIst century witnessed the continuously escalating warming of the climate. And not the last cause of this is atmospheric pollution with greenhouse gases due to man-made activities (although the natural processes, apparently, prevail here). The glaciers, including the giant Greenland glacier shield, are shrinking due to their melting. Melt out from the glass mass are domestic items of Greenland Vikings who populated this �green� island during the Smaller Climatic Optimum (in the early Ist millennium A.C.). Some climatologists, out of which the most renowned is, probably, G. Flon from West Germany (at the time when he wrote his papers Germany was still divided into two parts), predict that the global climate warming, unless appropriate actions are taken, will go on farther to the north and by the late XXIst century the Greenland glacier shield will melt down completely. Climatologists from NASA also support this theory. In the 1980s-1990s it was believed that the Greenland glacier melts (decreases its height) at a rate of 1 meter a year. The last measurements of US scientists made in 2006 revealed that the melting rate was 10 m a year. And this is very serious. The matter is that even the appearance of large water reservoirs during construction of hydropower plants leads to sagging of the Earth�s crust in these places and to growing local seismicity. But the reservoirs of hydropower plants are not more, in fact, than 200- 300 m deep, while the Greenland glacier shield lifts up to a height up to three and a half thousand meters. Its width and length are measured in thousands of kilometers. Naturally, the Earth�s crust under it sagged enormously, approximately by one kilometer, and this is observed over a vast territory. At heavy warming the process of glacier melting goes on much quicker than the process of ice accumulation. If the latter process goes on for thousand years, then even the large glaciers may get melted under respective warming during several decades and the formerly sagged area of the Earth�s crust will straighten up, as if float up. The geographical specific feature of the North-Atlantic region is that the Atlantic rift (a part of the world rift system) runs nearby the Greenland crossing the Iceland Island . This island is a monument of geogenetic processes that led to formation of the world rift system and the system of mid-oceanic ridges. According to the lithosphere-oceanic theory, developed by the author of this article, quick uplift of the Earth�s crust in the area of the rift fracture will lead to disastrous breakup of the lithosphere joint near Iceland and oscillating displacements of parts of the lithosphere plates (the eastern part of the North-American plate and northwestern part of the Eurasian plate) with an amplitude of several hundred meters and, possibly, the first kilometers, within a length of several thousand kilometers. The rift fracture goes down to a depth of several dozen kilometers to the border with the Earth�s upper mantle, more accurately, to the border with the asthenosphere. Quick dislocations of the Earth�s crust (lithosphere) will create under it some lower stratum pressure and the huge masses of oceanic water will rush at a �gun� speed into the formed abyss under pressure of the oceanic water column (300-450 atm). The matter of the asthenosphere is heated approximately to 1100-1200^oC and, according to the lithosphere-oceanic theory, is in a heavily dispersed state (a mix of superheated vapor with basalt-like substance of the Earth�s upper mantle crushed by previous vapor explosions into dust and �cinder�). A scaly contact of possibly moving towards each other giant masses of cold oceanic water and hot asthenosphere matter will result, if not instantly, but still in rather quick evaporation of oceanic waters that rushed into the opened abyss. Evaporating the water will expand 1740 times, i.e. it likens the very strong explosive. (The vivid illustration of explosive capacity of water is explosions of steam boilers in the pioneer time of steam engines.) The rift zone of the Iceland-Greenland region will witness the cyclopic explosion which scale we, hardly, but with some effort, can image. The matter is that such explosions occurred in the past, too: approximately twenty-two times (judging by the number of strip pairs in the mid-oceanic ridge and the quantity of magnetic inversions of the Earth�s poles) in the Cenozoic Time and twice (also following the postulates of the lithosphere-oceanic theory) in the Mesozoic. These explosions are associated with the formation of the Earth�s rift system, all mid-oceanic ridges, occurrence of two very large extinctions of live organisms in the Mesozoic (they are well known to paleontologists), anthropogenesis and accelerated species formation in the Cenozoic. Each such explosion was followed by the world flood and the next glacier period (or the Great Glaciation) and many other interrelated natural events. (The frames of a journal article prevent me from describing the whole complex of events. You can find more details in my monograph which data you can find in the subheading to this article.) The last such explosion occurred approximately five and half or six thousand years ago that was witnessed by the people who were already familiar with a kind of script and who left us the description of this event in the form of epos or �sacred writings�. (In particular, a very informative �sacred writings� of the Guatemala people �kiche� who wrote about �great wave that destroyed everybody� and tar-like rain and earthquakes and volcano eruptions accompanying the World Flood.)

            Vapor mega-explosion will affect not only the Iceland-Greenland region. Like a fire along a Bickford fuze or like a fire moving along a forest belt it will rush northward and southward of Iceland along the Earth�s rift system and run around the whole globe. The consequences of such explosion (in fact, eruption of an underwater linear volcano) will be rather variegated. First, a new pair of ranges in the mid-oceanic ridges will be created. The explosion will break up the modern rift valley, bend its edges upward to two or three kilometers and move them apart for ten, twenty and, at places, thirty kilometers to both sides from the center of the rift valley. This process will be most vivid in the Atlantic Ocean . Therefore, the width of all oceans will be increased by ten-thirty kilometers (differently in different oceans). The viscous part of the lithosphere will shrank by the same size, while the rigid and fragile Earth�s crust will heave up forming new mountain ridges, while the old one will become still higher. (It�s worth noting that in the ancient time such spreading was to the much greater widths.) New faults in the Earth�s crust will appear and the old faults with become larger. New volcanoes will be formed and the old, long ago dead volcanoes will become alive again. The scientists recorded such volcanic activity some six thousand years ago. The Earth will shudder and shake as in trance from multiple simultaneous earthquakes.

            No less frightful events will be observed in the atmosphere and hydrosphere of the Earth. Enormous volume of vapor will feel too tight in a rift fracture and its greater part will lay its way through the ocean thickness into the atmosphere. The Earth will be quickly enveloped into cloudiness. This will be not ordinary cyclonic cloudiness; it will be utterly black from basalt dust mixed with vapor. The visibility on the Earth will be zero and torrents of tar-like rains will rush on the Earth. Such rains will last for many days. But the most blood-chilling will be supertsunami which rolling-up huge waves one by one will attack the shaking continents immersed in darkness and illuminated only by multiple lightnings and glows of erupting volcanoes, flooded with �Biblical rain�, that will destroy everything alive. The tsunami height is dependent on the amplitude of the sea bottom oscillations. These are usually one to five, seldom ten meters. The tsunami height is the same, respectively. But how much evil they bring! In this place the sea bottom gets deformed by two-three kilometers. The same will be the supertsunami height. It will be even more due to the excessive vapor in the sublithosphere space that will rush out through the ocean thickness. It is difficult to say how much it will increase the tsunami wave, here modeling is needed. So far inadequacy of my technical facilities prevents me from doing this.

            Waters of the previous Flood left layers of post-Flood clay from Ur to Ninevia � this is about thousands of kilometers. But in the Indian Ocean the Flood was much weaker than in the Atlantics. That is why it is quite probable that the supertsunami waves will roll over the whole of France , destroy Switzerland and Austria . It is not clear whether the Carpathians will be able to stop them. The Danube valley will be washed off, the Black Sea will be overfilled having flooded Kolkhida and lower Georgia. In the north of Europe the supertsunami having jumped over the British Isles will rush its murderous waves over the Baltic depression and the North-European lowland sweeping all on its way; the waves will recede only from the depths of Northern Russia . To the east of the Atlantic rift the death-carrying supersunami waves will rush on the coast of North America . Easily leaping over the low Appalachian Mountains they will wash away everything in the Mississippi and Missouri valleys and loosing force will rise high up the Rocky Mountains . Excess water will flow into the Gulf of Mexico via the Mississippi valley. Great Lakes will become for some time one big inland sea. The Pacific flood that will occur somewhat later will destroy California , the whole American and Canadian Far West. The lands of Navaho, Pueblo , the territories of reservations in Cordilleras may survive.

            It is typical of tsunami waves that coming in contact with some obstacle they increase many-fold their height. That is why we can believe the epic and sacred writings saying that the waters of the World Flood covered the highest mountains. It is still surprising that part of the people that were obviously in the depth of continents and on high mountain plateaus managed to survive, because it is they who brought their knowledge about this flood to us. But this time it will be quite different. About three hundred nuclear power plants, thousands of missile launchers with nuclear weapons, stores of nuclear ammunition with thousands of hydrogen and nuclear bombs are not designed for extreme conditions of the global environmental disaster. The system of their servicing that guarantees their security will be destroyed and devoid of the service personnel. This cannot but lead to spontaneous explosions. Radioactive pollution of the Earth�s surface will exceed many times the admissible rates, and much of the Earth�s fauna, including people, will die of leukemia. And this time high mountains will not be a salvation. It is very painful to write such things, but I hope that the warned people will find the ways for salvation. Now we haven�t touched so far only the inferno, i.e. the sublithosphere space. The part of vapor that failed to be released into the atmosphere will be squeezed into it. The vapor explosion in the sublithosphere space will expand the asthenosphere increasing its gas (vapor) component, making it more different from the substance contained in the Earth�s upper mantle. A new portion of vapor in the asthenosphere will concentrate, first of all, in the near-rift space, while the periphery of the asthenosphere will be also growing. It is very important that the �flux� will appear also nearby the Faroese protrusion. The bottom uplift here will make the Gulf Stream carrying warmth of the tropics to Northern Atlantics to turn not reaching the Faeroes from its customary heading to the Arctic Ocean to the south, to the tropical part of the Atlantics. The Sahara will see rains and the climate close to that of modern India will get established here. On the coasts near the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean, devoid of the topical warmth that was brought here by the Gulf Stream , a new glacier period will start. The great glacier will freeze over for dozens of thousands of years, but the Antarctic cold (both in winter and in summer) will be felt at once. It is clear that all civilizations on lands bordering on the North Atlantics , i.e. practically all NATO countries, including its new members, will be destroyed. Perhaps, in this way the God recompenses for their sins. On the contrary, in the Northeastern Asia it will become warm due to intensified Kuroshio current after equalizing the oceanic water exchange between the Pacific, Arctic and Atlantic Oceans .

            May be this time the warned population will succeed to avert the nuclear threat, but it will be more difficult to cope with the next flood and glaciation. There are different proposals and most likely all they will be studied. But I think that so far there is one practicable project on construction of a pumping station in the Bering Strait for regulation of the oceanic water exchange and, consequently, the global climate. I proposed this project for the first time at the International Economic Congress in 2001, then it was repeated in the report of the Ministry for Emergency Situations in the same year and in the book �Glaciation Apocalypse� published in 2002 in Saratov .

            As concerns the time of occurrence of such global environmental disaster I would like to say that it directly depends on the thawing rate of the Greenland glacier. The critical threshold beyond which there is a disaster is waiting its determination. It is difficult to say whether we manage to estimate it accurately. So far I am heading (on the basis of forecasts of some US and West European specialists asserting that the Greenland glacier will melt down in the XXIst century) to the time period 2030-2070 because I think that the crisis will occur before complete glacier thawing. There are other considerations concerning the time, but all they come to the same date.

            I would like to stress that although there is a threat to the whole of mankind, but this disaster is of special danger for the North Atlantic countries, i.e. for the NATO countries. There it will be most unexpected, strong and irresistible. Western Europe and North America are most flourishing regions in the modern world, the beauty and pride of the whole mankind, the pole of political and military might. But let us recollect the film of Einzenshtein: �And the Heavenly Tsar will come down and mock the carnal tsar��. It�s a great pity if this region will turn into a lifeless desert. In the depths of the Eurasian, African and some other continents there is a greater probability for life survival, but the NATO countries, both its northern and southern flanges are doomed if they keep idle. Yes! The southern flange, too! The Mediterranean Sea will be overfilled with supertsunami waves, while the Gibraltar Strait will be destroyed for some time. This happened in the previous disasters of the kind. The greater part of the Apennines and a considerable part of the Iberian Peninsula,  flatlands and not only flatlands of Greece and Turkey, Northern Africa, Syria will be under water for long. Of course, Palestine will be submerged. The Dead Sea for some time will be a part of the Mediterranean . The author is going to write a separate article about this.

            To say that there is little time left for organization and execution of works on disaster prevention means to say nothing. That is why the circumstances urge me to apply directly via mass media to the decision-makers of the highest scientific, governmental and state levels in Russia , USA , Great Britain , France , China , Germany , Japan , Canada and other countries. I also appeal to the scientific community and the general world public. I am calling to address this problem most seriously. First of all, I propose to convene an international scientific conference to discuss the real threats of the global environmental disaster, to outline the programs of research works on this theme. The time has come to initiate conceptual discussion for selection of the ways for disaster prevention. At the conference it will be necessary to set up organizational structures for guidance of the international efforts to counteract the disastrous course of events. I would like to stress that if at the conference they try to ignore the author of these lines, everything will be waste of time and money. Some time ago a similar conference was held in Moscow , but it only moved the solution of this problem farther off, leaving aside the moral aspect of the problem.

            I think this is all that can be said within the frame of a journal article. Additional information covering widely the theme with all its interrelations and with accessible at present arguments the readers can find in the author�s monograph �What is in store for the mankind cradleland?� that is given in the article subheading. There you can also find its output data. You can apply for this book to the internet shop to the author�s site king-of-vulcans.narod.ru. The monograph is still on sale. By buying this book you will consolidate our positions in so far vain attempt to counteract the impending Global Environmental Disaster.

August, 2006

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